Facts and Thoughts 21-11 (zuivelmarktbericht)

Dutch PZ quotations (EXW Factory): dd 19-11-14: Butter stable 2990 >> 2990/mt, FCMP stable 2360/mt >> 2360/mt, SMP food
stable 1840/mt >>1840/mt, SMP feed bulk up 1660 >>1690/mt and SWP in Bulk for feed is down 810 >> 800/mt.
SWP for feed in Bulk: Dairy Auctions Online sold 250 MT for 100Mt Q4 at €800/mt DAP and for Q1 2015 150MT at €802/mt
DAP. Today we hear prices €770/MT DAP NL. Sweet Whey Conc.: unchanged: shortage on the spot market and prices
around Dutch pz quotation.
Skimmed concentrate: Prices delivered initially went slightly up: € 1850-€1900/mt DAP at the beginning of the week. Today we
hear prices are slightly going down: €1750/mt DAP and going down further.
SMP: You can buy cheaper via traders then via producers. At some point producers will have to follow the traders??? SMP in
private storage dd 16.11.2014: 13.727 MT , this week only 168 MT went in (again less). “Why put product in, which comes out
around next season’s peak” – asks a market participant .
Cream: Prices were up again this week : €3900-€4000/mt delivered. Not much buying interest anymore today.
Butter: Prices stay rather stable, slightly coming down. Butter in private storage dd 16.11.2014 = 19961 MT, this week only 281
MT went in (also less again). And same conclusion as above (SMP).
Foil ripened Gouda48: Dead market. We get more offers direct from producers. Q1 is expected to go down.
Milk volumes: Higher spot prices due to Christmas demand. This will soon change. At this stage (so we hear) it seems a lot of
farmers are trying to prevent super levy by skimming their milk on farm and delivering (partly) skimmed milk to the coops. (This
should show in lower fat content delivered). This cream will (of course…) all be registered and destroyed at site….
GDT-128 Results dd 18.11.2014: Overall -3.1%= average prices all periods. AMF index UP 6.1%: US$3490/MT = €2792/mt -
Butter index UP 6.0%: US$2656/MT = €2125/mt - BMP (UHT from NZ) index UP 1.4%: US$2511/mt = €2008/mt - Cheddar
index UP 5.0%: US$2861/MT= €2289/mt – Lactose n.a. - RenCas index down -12.2%: $6681/MT = €5345/mt - SMP index
down -5.7%: US$2299/MT = €1839/mt EU (only Arla) approx US$2270/mt = €1816/mt (USA not offered (yet again…) and NZ
approx US$2450 = €1950/mt (Cheapst NZ = $2200/mt = €1760/mt) SWP Ammerland index n.a%: US$/mt = €/mt - WMP
index down -5.1%: US$2400/MT= €1920/mt (only NZ product). 39.613 MT was sold to 134 winning bidders. Next event:18-11-
2014. Highground Dairy on gDT: Overall volume sold at this week’s auction was the lightest in November since 2011. And
with the reduced volumes, both WMP and SMP set fresh five year lows." how much more downside is left before the market
begins trending upward? Unfortunately for those looking for a quick rebound, it is HGr’s belief we have not yet seen the bottom.
EUCOLAIT NEWS: - Intervention will open once again in the New Year. It appears from reports that from 1 January 2015,
this will constitute a completely new campaign, i.e. the 50,000 tonnes and 109,000 tonnes ceilings for buying in butter and SMP
respectively will apply from 1 January, irrespective of what volumes may be sold into intervention prior to 31 December 2014.
The new intervention period will run from 1 January until 30 September 2015. The Commission reiterated that the intervention
price was fixed and was not up for further discussion. / Baltics are exploring if they will give their farmers additional national aids.
Global: China not back in the market / USA it looks as if some parts are getting an early winter again.. / El Nino is back at the
table: The chance of him attending the party has increased back to 70%. (Still more bears then bulls running around….)